For several weeks now, I’ve been bandying about various election projections that some readers no doubt regarded as far too favorable to President Obama.
Well, take heart, you skeptics. Readers who are hoping that Mitt Romney wins next week’s election will want to pay close attention to today’s lesson on the difference between election probabilities and poll percentages. They ain’t the same thing.
Let’s begin our little tutorial with the latest projection from polling analyst Nate Silver. He sees a 77-percent likelihood that President Obama will win re-election next week. For our purposes here, let’s just say that he sees — ...