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PITTSBURG —
Chat with anyone involved in business or economic development in Pittsburg, and it quickly becomes clear that the area is defying statewide demographics with its significant growth.
USD 250 Superintendent Destry Brown is one of many watching the trends, and he recently put together growth projections for district enrollment based on the trajectory of current numbers so the district can begin considering the impact the growth already occurring will have on schools.
Since the 2008-09 school year, total student enrollment in the Pittsburg Community Schools has grown by 153, or from 2,659 to 2,812.
“I don’t know what’s caused that growth, except that it has occurred,” Brown said. “We are unique, especially in this area of Kansas.”
He said class sizes in the middle school and elementary schools are larger than those in the high school, and that even conservative models indicate it is almost certain student population will continue to grow as larger classes move upward.
The Numbers
Brown’s number projections begin by taking every student currently in each grade and rolling that same number forward each year. By this model, this year’s eighth grade class currently has 216 students and would be projected to graduate with 216 students in 2017.
He then averaged numbers for recent years in the lower grades and put future kindergarten classes into the system using 235 as an average number, and rolling that same number forward each year.
“Over the last five years that was the average number,” Brown said. “I just moved the kids through the system. The other classes - I just rolled them over.”
The model does not consider any additional growth or influx in the district, but still significantly expands enrollment, with the district projected to cross the 3,000-student mark in 2017.
“This takes no growth anywhere else in the system except the high school,” Brown said.
But, he said that growth at the high school level will quickly begin to strain the space at that building.
“When we get to over 800 at the high school, we’re going to be at a critical point for space,” Brown said.
His projections show that is likely to take place in the 2014-2015 school year.
“We are going to have to take a look at what space we have and how we are using the space,” he said. “I am concerned about that.”
“Our large classes are K-8,” he added.
Additionally, Brown projects growth of about a percent a year in students considered at-risk because of their socio-economic status, as well as an increased need for special education student services on both ends of the spectrum. Additionally, the district has growing numbers of students who will need English for Speakers of Other Languages services, both as a result of an area Hispanic influx and due to the number of international students at Pittsburg State University who bring children with them.
Chat with anyone involved in business or economic development in Pittsburg, and it quickly becomes clear that the area is defying statewide demographics with its significant growth.
USD 250 Superintendent Destry Brown is one of many watching the trends, and he recently put together growth projections for district enrollment based on the trajectory of current numbers so the district can begin considering the impact the growth already occurring will have on schools.
Since the 2008-09 school year, total student enrollment in the Pittsburg Community Schools has grown by 153, or from 2,659 to 2,812.
“I don’t know what’s caused that growth, except that it has occurred,” Brown said. “We are unique, especially in this area of Kansas.”
He said class sizes in the middle school and elementary schools are larger than those in the high school, and that even conservative models indicate it is almost certain student population will continue to grow as larger classes move upward.
The Numbers
Brown’s number projections begin by taking every student currently in each grade and rolling that same number forward each year. By this model, this year’s eighth grade class currently has 216 students and would be projected to graduate with 216 students in 2017.
He then averaged numbers for recent years in the lower grades and put future kindergarten classes into the system using 235 as an average number, and rolling that same number forward each year.
“Over the last five years that was the average number,” Brown said. “I just moved the kids through the system. The other classes - I just rolled them over.”
The model does not consider any additional growth or influx in the district, but still significantly expands enrollment, with the district projected to cross the 3,000-student mark in 2017.
“This takes no growth anywhere else in the system except the high school,” Brown said.
But, he said that growth at the high school level will quickly begin to strain the space at that building.
“When we get to over 800 at the high school, we’re going to be at a critical point for space,” Brown said.
His projections show that is likely to take place in the 2014-2015 school year.
“We are going to have to take a look at what space we have and how we are using the space,” he said. “I am concerned about that.”
“Our large classes are K-8,” he added.
Additionally, Brown projects growth of about a percent a year in students considered at-risk because of their socio-economic status, as well as an increased need for special education student services on both ends of the spectrum. Additionally, the district has growing numbers of students who will need English for Speakers of Other Languages services, both as a result of an area Hispanic influx and due to the number of international students at Pittsburg State University who bring children with them.
The Needs
“It’s going to have the effect of a couple things,” Brown said.
He said immediate impacts will be felt in class sizes and the need to add teachers.
In Brown’s first couple years as superintendent, he said the district lost some funding due to state budget cuts, then took another hit due to an enrollment dip in 2010-11. Teacher positions, including two high school social studies slots, were lost as a result, but likely will be returning.
“Because of growth, we’ve been able to bring funding back into the district,” Brown said.
The sustained student population growth means additional funding, at least in the form of the base aid per pupil paid by the State of Kansas, and Brown said staff is the first need.
At least one high school social studies position will be returning, and Brown said state requirements that students take four math credits to graduate (or take three and score a 22 on the math section of the ACT) mean the school will need at least one additional math teacher as well.
Brown said additional teachers need to have places to teach, and that is where the space becomes strained.
Increases in special education services also require additional rooms, as will any additional class size increases.
“We try to keep our class sizes smaller,” Brown said. “We need to give every kid the opportunity to learn at an optimal level.”
He said while the strain isn’t going to be as immediate at the elementary levels, he does keep an eye on numbers there in hopes of maintaining a class size of 20-24 in the younger grades.
Brown said when he arrived at USD 250, construction was wrapping up at each of the four elementary schools to accommodate a move toward all-day kindergarten and to provide extra space.
“They’re full again,” Brown said.
Additionally, special education requires extra rooms and number projections show an increase from 442 at present to 576 by 2019-2020.
“An increase of about 150 special education students over the next seven years would really put a strain on our system for facility space,” Brown said.
He said the building with the most immediate room for expansion is the middle school, where most of the space at the front end of the building is not currently used, although even there the gym space is crowded.
But the high school remains the focus, particularly because it is in need of some updates, and Brown said he compiled the numbers so the board can consider its options as the updates are made, rather than making updates and then maxing out spaces.
“It’s a discussion we’re going to have to have as far as how to meet the needs of the kids at the high school,” he said. “We’re not going to go into it and make a hasty decision.”
But he said the building’s auditorium currently only holds a portion of the student population, and aging heat and air infrastructure need to be addressed anyway.
He said it will be wise to consider these at the same time as conversations take place regarding space.
“I think we need to do a needs assessment at the high school,” he said.
The contingencies
When asked whether anything could change the projections, Brown said the closing of a large area employer could stymie the growth, but it is more likely the growth will accelerate beyond the projections.
“If we lose companies, it would definitely have a negative impact,” he told board of education members when he originally presented the numbers
Looking around the community, Brown said Via Christi is expanding, Pittsburg State University is expanding and Sugar Creek Packing is expanding. He said any or all of the three could have major impacts on enrollment at-large and within some of the special-needs subgroups.
“This doesn’t take into account any of that,” he said of the numbers.
Brown has asked the board of education to consider facilities and space, and how best to address the concerns that accompany the coming growth.
